…and Lead in a Recovery.  Will they this time?

some of the most expensive real estate in the world

some of the most expensive real estate in the world

Yes, it’s true. The real estate downturn has finally hit Manhattan and The Hamptons, like a 1:2 punch.

see:

Hamptons and North Fork Dollar Volume Dow 66%

and Experts advise buyers and sellers to get back to basics

While Florida, Las Vegas. Pheonix and inland California was getting hit by the over exuberant development of condos and housing subdivisions, we just watched, believing that we were immune. After all, we didn’t have the excessive development that those markets had. Our development was “more refined”, focusing on higher end custom homes and “in-demand” specialty condos in the city.

And, recessions do hit the heartland and those markets less driven by high society first and end there last. Traditionally, the impact of a recession arrives in Manhattan and The Hamptons later and ends here earlier, making it not as long and not as deep.

In the late 1980’s, while other areas saw large declines in values, here development stopped, buying slowed tremendously and values stood still for nearly 10 years, according to folklore.

The Dot-com bubble in the late 1990’s hurt Northern California and other areas, like Boston that had huge tech investment, but didn’t crush Manhattan and Hamptons real estate. As a matter of fact, that bubble burst helped move people toward real estate, believing that it was a better investment than paper stocks. How many times have I heard “Hamptons real estate is a blue chip investment that you can live in!” I even said it a number of times…how clever.

Even September 11th, while we all stood still in shock for a time,  Hamptons real estate took off due to the flight to safety that many families were seeking. Many current full time residents of the Hamptons were only part time, summer and/or weekend residents before 9/11 and made the move here after the event and never went back to the city to live.

It’s been a great ride, these last 11 years in real estate for me…despite having some great successes and some pretty dismal failures, I have great regard for this business and the challenges of working with people to find their special place. As I’ve often said in recent years…there’s nothing I’d rather do and no place I’d rather live.

This time, the meltdown of the financial markets may have a deeper and longer impact on Manhattan and its cabana, The Hamptons. Time will tell. And what we do and where we live may be impacted as well for years to come.

I have been a bull on Hamptons real estate for years.

this bull is down for the count

this bull is down for the count

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